Saturday, November 26, 2016

Chippin' Away At The Votes


THEY JUST KEEP ON NIBBLING AWAY AT THE VOTES
The Registrar of Voters Office posted new results today, Saturday, November 26th and, according to their site, the next report will be Monday, November 28th.  There remain 44,478 total Orange County votes left to count.  You can see all the results for the OC Races HERE.

COSTA MESA CITY COUNCIL
Sandy Genis retains a 221 vote lead over John Stephens, who, in turn, holds a 2,532 lead over Allan Mansoor.  Mayor Steve Mensinger trails Mansoor by 510 votes for the third seat.  Jay Humphrey is only 54 votes behind Mensinger.  Lee Ramos and Al Melone trail the field.
COSTA MESA SANITARY DISTRICT
Incumbents Jim Ferryman and Art Perry hold commanding leads for the two seats available.  Gary Monahan trails Perry by 4,815 votes.  Jim Fitzpatrick and Christopher Luntsford trail the field.
MESA WATER DISTRICT
 Incumbent Jim Fislers lead has not changed on challenger Alex Reich.
GROWTH ISSUES
Measure Y, the citizen-generated Smart Growth Initiative, continues to pass by more than a 2-1 margin.  Measure Z, the City-generated measure designed to deceive the voters is passing, but with many fewer votes than Measure Y
FAIRVIEW PARK ISSUES
Measure AA, the citizen-generated initiative designed to protect Fairview Park from development of any type, continues to pass by an ever-growing margin - well beyond 2-1.  Measure BB, the City-generated measure designed to confuse and deceive voters, is failing at the polls.
MEDICAL MARIJUANA ISSUES
Both citizen-generated measures to permit the sale of medical marijuana in the city - Measures V and W - are both failing at the polls by sizable margins.  Measure X, the City-generated measure to restrict medical marijuana activities to a small corner of northern Costa Mesa - with no retail sales permitted - is passing by a more than 2-1 margin.
VOTE--BY-DISTRICTS
This measure, the vote-by-districts measure placed on the ballot as a result of a legal settlement, was hijacked by Mayor Pro Tem Jim Righeimer and was expanded to form 6 voter districts AND include a directly-elected mayor.  This, too, is passing by a 2-1 margin.
MESA WATER HOSTILE TAKEOVER OF THE CMSD
 This meaningless measure, placed on the ballot by the Mesa Water District Board of Directors to try to snooker the voters into "approving" the consolidation of Mesa Water and the Costa Mesa Sanitary District, is passing.  Fortunately, it means absolutely nothing.  Any consideration of consolidation of the two special districts will be the purview of the Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO).
COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT
 All incumbents in these races have wide margins on their challengers.
NEWPORT MESA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT 
Incumbents in these races are also holding significant margins over the challengers.
74TH STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Matt Harper will defeat Karina Onofre.
37TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
John Moorlach will defeat Ari Grayson
48TH UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Dana Rohrabacher will defeat Dr. Suzanne Savary.
WHAT'S LEFT TO COUNT?
Estimate of Ballots Left to Count - 44,478
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count - 16
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count - 91
Provisionals Left to Count - 44,315
Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count - 56
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots Received After Election Day Left to Count - 0

NEXT REPORT MONDAY NIGHT
I expect the next report will be Monday evening, so I will report the results then.  They only managed to count about 10% of the remaining votes for this report, so it's still likely that the completion will stretch to their deadline of December 8th.
 

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Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Letter In The Daily Pilot



FOR YOUR READING PLEASURE...
Today the editors of the Daily Pilot, our newspaper of record for more than a century, chose to publish a letter I submitted to them last week.  Well, most of it.  They edited my composition and removed around 100 words, some of which may have been inflammatory in their view.  They retained the message and the resultant editing made my letter better, as is always the case.  However, some of you apparently cannot access the Daily Pilot online, so I've reproduced my composition here for you.  For those who can access that fine newspaper, you'll find this letter HERE.  Enjoy.

*****

This year, as is the case every even-numbered year, Thanksgiving Day follows an election earlier in November. Depending on the results, you either celebrate with gusto, or begrudgingly gnaw on a turkey leg and grumble about what might have been. Despite the controversy in the national election results, this year I join many other Costa Mesans smiling as we salivate over that dinner to come.
This election season was full of surprises, none more dramatic than Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton. Locally, though, we've had results that were similarly surprising. For example, as I type this a week before the holiday, and not all of the Orange County votes counted, it looks very much like Costa Mesa Mayor Steve Mensinger will not be returned to the City Council by the electorate. At this point, incumbent Sandra Genis and lawyer John Stephens, who teamed with former councilman Jay Humphrey as a slate, are neck-and-neck with a large lead over returning former mayor, Allan Mansoor, who, in turn, holds a lead over Mensinger for the third seat available this cycle.
Humphrey trails Mensinger by a small margin. This was a surprising result, so it seems appropriate to look for a reason. We don't have to look very far. In addition to the 17 statewide issues, there were eight local measures on the ballot facing Costa Mesa voters, two of which were citizen-generated initiatives addressing Growth and Fairview Park. Measure Y, the so-called Smart Growth Initiative, and Measure AA, designed to protect Fairview Park from development, were placed on the ballot after more than 7,000 signatures of registered Costa Mesa voters were obtained for each and qualified for the ballot.
However, Mensinger's City Council majority decided they couldn't trust the electorate, so they cobbled together two separate competing measures. The voters saw through that and both Measure Y and Measure AA are passing by astounding margins, at least 2-1.
These measures, and the campaigns of Genis, Stephens and Humphrey, were largely the result of grassroots efforts by hundreds of residents who pounded the pavement for months, knocking on doors, spreading about truth of issues and candidates, one voter at a time. At the same time, Mensinger and his campaign machine, which apparently was funded in great part by out-of-town developer money, flooded our mailboxes with a torrent of negative fliers denigrating the candidates and initiatives.
The final straw for many voters may have been when they attacked members of the Costa Mesa public safety organizations, many of whom supported the Genis/Stephens/Humphrey ticket. We don't know who chose that path, but it certainly was ill-advised and it backfired, because angry voters turned out in droves and made a statement at the polls; they've had enough.
If the trends hold, we can anticipate a new, more conciliatory atmosphere once the new council is seated. We can expect the return of study sessions, where pithy issues are fleshed out in public. The wisdom of all council members will be considered, and decisions made by the council will place the best interests of all Costa Mesans ahead of out-of-town developers. It will be fun to watch.
*****

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO YOU ALL
We here at A Bubbling Cauldron hope you all have a wonderful Thanksgiving.  This year we have much for which we can be thankful.
 

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Mixed Bag For The Planning Commission Monday



MIDWAY THROUGH MARATHON MEETINGS
The Costa Mesa Planning Commission meets again Monday, November 28, 2016 beginning at 6:00 p.m. in City Council Chambers at City Hall.  This will be the third of what will likely be five (5) consecutive Mondays that this body will have met by Christmas.  You can read the full agenda for this meeting HERE.

SOBER LIVING ITEM YANKED LATE!
This agenda was revised late Wednesday, today, to remove Item #4, a request for Conditional Use Permits for a Sober Living Facility serving up to 30 residents at 574 and 578 Joann Street.  This item will NOT be heard Monday night.

50/50
The remaining items on the agenda are sp
lit, with two development-related issues and two sober living issues facing the commission.

SOBER LIVING HOMES AT 351 AND 357 VICTORIA STREET
Public Hearing #1, HERE, is an item continued to this date from November 14, 2016 due to the lateness of the hour.  This requests Conditional Use Permits for sober living permits at 351 and 357 Victoria Street and an appeal of reasonable accommodation for a land use requirement.  The staff recommends denial.

QUADRUPLING DENSITY AT 353 EAST 18TH STREET
Public Hearing #2, HERE, is a small lot development at 353 East 18th Street, demolishing one unit and replacing it with four.

SOBER LIVING HOME AT 2152 RALEIGH AVENUE
Public Hearing #3, HERE, is an appeal of the denial of a Special Use Permit to operate a Sober Living Home at 2152 Raleigh Avenue.  Staff recommends upholding the denial of the request.

15 STORY HOTEL AT 3350 AVENUE OF THE ARTS
Public Hearing #5, HERE, is a Master Plan amendment for a new hotel tower at 3350 Avenue of the Arts.  The applicant is requesting variances from the previously approved project to reduce an open space setback and a change in parking requirements.  The staff recommends approval.

FINGERS CROSSED FOR A QUORUM
Last time only 3 of the 5 commissioners showed up.  Will be interesting to see how many make this meeting - or the next two, for that matter.

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Pre-Thanksgiving Election Results


TIME FOR A LITTLE BREAK
This is the last election result to be posted until after the Thanksgiving holiday.  Orange County Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley and his hardworking band of minions deserve a day off.  There remain only 48,836 Orange County votes remaining to be counted.  According to the Election Results site, HERE, the next report will be on Friday afternoon.

COSTA MESA CITY COUNCIL
The positions in this remain the same.  Incumbent Sandy Genis holds a 228 vote lead over John Stephens.  He holds a commanding 2,530 vote lead over former Mayor Allan Mansoor.  Mansoor holds a 502 vote lead over Mayor Steve Mensinger.  Jay Humphrey is only 54 votes behind him.  Lee Ramos and Al Melone are far behind.
COSTA MESA SANITARY DISTRICT
Incumbents Jim Ferryman and Art Perry continue to hold commanding leads in this race.  Former member and former councilman Gary Monahan is far behind Perry - 4,818 votes.  Jim Fitzpatrick and Christopher Luntsford are far behind.
MESA WATER DISTRICT
 Incumbent Jim Fisler continues his dominance of this race, leading Alex Reich by 1,509 votes.
GROWTH ISSUES
The citizen-generated Measure Y, the Smart Growth Initiative, continues to hold a more than 2-1 lead.  City-generated Measure Z, designed to hoodwink the voters is passing, but with 5,288 fewer votes that Y.
FAIRVIEW PARK ISSUES
Citizen-generated Measure AA holds a more than 2-1 lead.  Measure BB, the other City-generated measure designed to fool voters, is failing badly.
MEDICAL MARIJUANA ISSUES
Both citizen-generated medical marijuana measures are failing at the ballot box.  Measure X, the City-generated measure is passing.
VOTE-BY-DISTRICTS
This measure, hijacked by Mayor Pro Tem Jim Righeimer to create 6 districts and add a directly-elected mayor to the mix, is passing by nearly a 2-1 ratio.
BOGUS HOSTILE TAKEOVER OF CMSD BY MESA WATER
This meaningless measure, designed to confuse the electorate about Mesa Water's hostile takeover of the Costa Mesa Sanitary District, is passing.  Big deal..
COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT
 All incumbents in these races are dominating their challengers and will hold their seats.
NEWPORT MESA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
 All incumbents in these races continue to hold large leads on their challengers
74TH STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Matt Harper will defeat Karina Onofre.
37TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
John Moorlach will defeat Ari Grayson.
48TH UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
 Dana Rohrabacher will defeat Dr. Suzanne Savary.
WHAT'S LEFT TO COUNT?
Estimate of Ballots Left to Count -  48,836
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count - 16
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count - 91
Provisionals Left to Count - 48,411
Election Day Paper Ballots left to Count - 56
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots Received After Election Day Left to Count - 262

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM A BUBBLING CAULDRON!

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Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Local Election Results as of 5:00 PM, 11/22/16


GETTING CLOSE - NEXT RESULTS POSTED TOMORROW EVENING
Here are the local election results as of 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, November 22, 2016.  You can read the full Orange County results HERE.  The next update will be tomorrow, Wednesday, November 23, 2016 after 5:00 p.m.  There will be no counting done on Thanksgiving Day nor on Friday following.  There remain 61,649 votes left to count.

COSTA MESA CITY COUNCIL
Sandy Genis still leads John Stephens by 228 votes.  Stephens leads Allan Mansoor by 2,524 votes.  Mansoor leads Mayor Steve Mensinger by 499 votes.  Mensinger leads Jay Humphrey by 63 votes.  Lee Ramos and Al Melone trail the field.
COSTA MESA SANITARY DISTRICT
Jim Ferryman and Art Perry continue to hold solid leads over all challengers.  Perry leads Gary Monahan by 4,839 votes.  Jim Fitzpatrick trails Monahan by 2,499.  Christopher Luntsford trails.
MESA WATER DISTRICT
Incumbent Jim Fisler still leads challenger Alex Reich by 1,507 votes.
GROWTH ISSUES
 The citizen-generated Measure Y - the Smart Growth Initiative - is passing by more than a 2-1 margin.  Measure Z, the City-generated measure designed to confuse voters is also passing, but trails Measure Y by more than 5,000 votes.
FAIRVIEW PARK ISSUES
The citizen-generated Measure AA, designed to protect Fairview Park, is passing by more than a 2-1 margin.  The City-generated Measure BB, designed to confuse the voters is failing.
MEDICAL MARIJUANA ISSUES
Both citizen-generated medical marijuana initiatives are failing badly.  Measure X, the City-generated measure to theoretically compete with them is passing.
VOTE-BY-DISTRICTS
The vote-by-district measure that was hijacked by Mayor Pro Tem Jim Righeimer to create 6 voting districts AND add a directly-elected mayor is passing handily.
HOSTILE TAKEOVER BY MESA WATER OF THE CMSD 
 This bogus, meaningless measure put on the ballot by the Mesa Water board to snooker the voters into thinking favorably about consolidation of Mesa Water and the CMSD is passing.
COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT
 All incumbents in these races are holding their seats by solid margins.
NEWPORT MESA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
 All NMUSD incumbents are holding solid leads for their seats.
74TH STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
 Matt Harper will defeat Karina Onofre
37TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
John Moorlach will defeat Ari Grayson
48TH UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Dana Rohrabacher will defeat Dr. Suzanne Savary
WHAT'S LEFT TO COUNT?
Total Ballots Left to Count - 61,649
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count - 422
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count - 627
Provisionals Left to Count - 60,282
Election Day Paper Left to Count - 56
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count -262

NEXT REPORT TOMORROW, THEN A COUPLE DAYS OFF WHILE THEY REST
So, we have just over 61,000 Orange County votes left to count.  This is the heavy slogging part of this process.  There will be results posted tomorrow, then Neal Kelley and his band of merry minions will take a couple days off.  We're told they will be counting the weekend after the Thanksgiving holiday.  Good for them... and for us.


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