Friday, November 11, 2016

Veterans Day Election Update


THE LATEST NUMBERS AT 5:00 P.M. ON VETERANS DAY
As anticipated, the Registrar of Voters updated the numbers at 5:00 p.m. Veterans Day.  Here's how they look now.

COSTA MESA CITY COUNCIL
 Sandy Genis and John Stephens remain well ahead in this race.  She holds a 28 vote lead over him.  Allan Mansoor trails Stephens by 1,930 votes for the remaining spot on the council.  Mayor Steve Mensinger remains 414 votes behind Mansoor (thanks to Honeyman for the catch).  Jay Humphrey continues to lose ground  on Mensinger.  Lee Ramos is well off the pace and Al Melone is dead last.
COSTA MESA SANITARY DISRICT
Incumbents Jim Ferryman and Art Perry continue to hold commanding leads over challengers.  Ferryman leads Perry by 2,181 votes.  Perry's lead for the second seat over Gary Monahan has grown to 3,600 votes.  Jim Fitzpatrick and Christopher Luntsford continue to trail the field badly.
MESA WATER DISTRICT
Incumbent Jim Fisler holds what certainly appears to be an insurmountable lead over newcomer Alex Reich.  His lead continues to grow.
MEDICAL MARIJUANA
Both citizen-generated measures, V and W, continue to fail badly while the City generated Measue X continues to pass.
 
 
GROWTH ISSUES
Both growth-related issues, Measures Y and Z, continue to pass, but the citizen-generated Measure Y has an overwhelming lead of nearly 4,000 votes.
FAIRVIEW PARK ISSUES
Citizen-generated Measure AA is passing overwhelmingly.  The City measure placed on the ballot to confuse the voters, BB, is failing.
VOTE BY DISTRICTS
The bogus measure placed on the ballot by Mayor Pro Tem Jim Righeimer that provides for a 6-voting district model PLUS a directly-elected mayor, is passing handily.  There was no organized opposition to this measure - I was the only person who wrote against it.
HOSTILE TAKEOVER OF THE CMSD BY MESA WATER
This advisory measure is still passing with a similar ratio as the last report.
COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT 
All incumbents continue to hold overwhelming leads in these races.
NEWPORT MESA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
All incumbents hold strong leads over the challengers with the same ratios as the previous report
74TH STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Matt Harper continues to lead Karina Onofre and his lead is growing
37TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
Incumbent John Moorlach continues to lead Ari Grayson by a wide margin
48TH UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT
Dana Rohrabacher continues to hold a commanding lead over challenger Dr. Suzanne Savary.
WHAT'S LEFT TO COUNT? 
According to the ROV site the following ballots remain to be counted.
  • Total Estimated Left To Count - 388,679
  • Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left To Count - 60,088
  • Provisionals Left To Count - 108,000
  • Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left To Count - 184,174
  • Election Day Paper Ballots Left To Count - 22,500
  • Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left To Count - 13,917
NEXT REPORT TOMORROW
It is anticipated that the staff will work Saturday, but perhaps not Sunday.  The next report is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. Saturday, 11/12/16.  I'll report then unless anything exciting happens between now and then.  Have a great weekend.

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A Very Busy Week Ahead



BUSY, BUSY, BUSY...
Next week is going to be very busy for the City staff, with significant public meetings Monday through Thursday.  I'll cover each individually, but here's a heads-up so you can plan your week.
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2016
Costa Mesa Planning Commission meets at 6:00 p.m in City Council Chambers to discuss eight (8) sober living issues.  Other  four development-related items on the agenda, HERE, will be continued to a special meeting on November 21, 2016.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2016
The City Council meets at 5:45 p.m. in City Council Chambers to discuss an agenda, HERE, that is packed with development-related issues.  Also, the controversial Holiday night club is on the agenda.  More on this agenda later.
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2016
The Costa Mesa Senior Commission meets at 9:00 a.m. at the Senior Center, 695 W. 19th Street and has a very light agenda, HERE. The only item on the agenda is a discussion of some new Senior Instructional Class Proposals.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2016
The Costa Mesa Parks and Recreation Commission meets for the final time this calendar year at 6:00 p.m. in City Council Chambers.  The agenda is thin, HERE.  It covers one tree removal request, a discussion of Cell Site Upgrades at Shiffer Park and the Fairview Park Annual Report.
TWO "MAYOR" EVENTS CANCELLED
As an aside, I note without further comment that on the City Calendar the "Meet The Mayor" event scheduled for Sunday, November 13th has been cancelled, as has the Walk With The Mayor event on Friday, November 18th.  Seems appropriate...

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A Third Of The OC Votes Remain Uncounted

REGISTRAR AND STAFF ARE HARD AT WORK
Today, while most of us pause to honor our veterans on this special day, Orange County Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley and his small army of worker-bees (240 strong) continue to plow through the mountains of ballots submitted in this election cycle.

WHAT'S LEFT TO COUNT?
As I've said MANY times in the past few days, this election if FAR from over.  You can go to the "What's Left To Count" page, HERE, for real-time numbers.  Let me summarize it for you as of 10:00 a.m. Friday.
  • Estimates of Ballots Left To Count - 411,049
  • Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count - 85,791
  • Provisionals Left To Count - 108,000
  • Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count - 184,174
  • Election Day Paper Ballots Left To Count - 22,500
  • Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots Received After Election Day Left To Count - 10,584
That first number has gone up as the mail is delivered and it is anticipated that it will continue to rise today and tomorrow.
STILL RETRIEVING THE MAIL
I'm told by representatives of the Registrar of Voters office that they are working hard today and will do so through the weekend.  Although there is no mail delivery today the ROV has made arrangements to go to the Post Office and retrieve all mail awaiting delivery.
DAILY UPDATES PLANNED
I'm also told that there continues to be a plan to provide daily updates at 5:00 p.m. each day, but that there may be no update on Sunday.
COULD TAKE THE FULL MONTH TO CERTIFY
I'm also told that, due to the tremendous volume of ballots turned in this cycle, it may take two more weeks to complete the counting and certify the results.  They are required to complete this work within 30 days of the election.  If it takes that long and the results are not certified until December 8th, then the Costa Mesa City Council results will NOT be certified until after their first meeting in December, on the 6th.
CHILL OUT!
So, dear readers, while many of you are euphoric about some of the results, please understand that nearly ONE THIRD - of the Orange County votes have NOT been counted yet.  Relax, enjoy this holiday and the weekend that follows.  Go see "Hacksaw Ridge" to give you an even greater appreciation of what some veterans have gone through so we can have the opportunity to select those who represent us in government.  Play with your kids.  Relax...
IN THE MEANTIME...
I'll keep checking and reporting.

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Thursday, November 10, 2016

Election Update, 5:00 P.M. 11/10/16


NOT MUCH CHANGED TODAY
Here are the latest numbers from the Orange County Registrar of Voters as of 5 p.m., Thursday, November 11, 2016.  In every case the ratios remained the same.  No positions changed in any individual races and the Yes/No ratios remained virtually the same in all measures on the ballot.

COSTA MESA CITY COUNCIL
Sandy Genis picked up 300 votes; John Stephens gained 313; Allan Mansoor gained 249; Steve Mensinger gained 239; Jay Humphrey gained 230; Lee Ramos gained 148 and Al Melone gained 72.
COSTA MESA SANITARY DISTRICT 
Incumbents Jim Ferryman and Art Perry continue to hold solid leads on the challengers, Gary Monahan, Jim Fitzpatrick and Christopher Luntsford
MESA WATER DISTRICT 
Jim Fisler continues to hold a commanding lead over challenger Alex Reich
 GROWTH ISSUES
Measure Y, the Smart Growth Initiative, continues to hold a more than 2/3 edge.  Measure Z, the bogus city initiative, stayed static at 55/45

MEDICAL MARIJUANA ISSUES
The two citizen-generated initiatives, Measures V and W, continue to fail.  The city measure, X, looks like it will pass handily.


FAIRVIEW PARK ISSUES
The citizen-generated Measure AA continues to hold a overwhelming lead.  The city-generated bogus Measure BB continues to fail badly.

VOTING BY DISTRICTS
The measure hijacked by Jim Righeimer and placed on the ballot continues to show strength.  It will likely pass, much to the detriment of the residents of the city.
HOSTILE TAKEOVER OF CMSD BY MESA WATER DISTRICT
This measure continues to lead but the NO votes gained ground.
COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT
All incumbents continue to hold commanding leads
NEWPORT MESA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
All incumbents continue to hold commanding leads
74TH STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
Matt Harper increased his lead over Karina Onofre
37TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
John Moorlach holds a large lead over Ari Grayson
48TH UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 
Dana Rohrabacher continues to hold a commanding lead over Dr. Suzanne Savary.
THAT'S ALL, FOLKS... MORE TOMORROW, MAYBE
So, that's it for tonight.   The next report will be at 5:00 p.m. Friday, although it's not clear if the Registrar's Office will be working tomorrow, Veterans Day.  There remain 400,465 total votes county-wide left to count.  They just nibbled away at that number today.  In years past it has taken several days for the final number to be certified.  Last time it was on November 20th.  Most of the races above look pretty solid, but.... remember... 47 votes...

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